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EUR/AUD Elliott wave count for February 6, 2012


Market Overview
The EUR/AUD pair is trading in short term bearish channel for last 6 days, Friday's Trading pushed this major to record low to 1.2170 level. Today in the early Asian session we could observe a slight downward movement below the 1.2200 level.We got Retail Sales from Australia report lower then expected today in Asia but market did not react on this news. In case level 1.2165 is passed trough the point 1.2100 will be considered as next support level.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3)1.2084 (S2)1.2142 (S1)1.2178 (PP)1.2236 (R1)1.2294 (R2)1.2330 (R3)1.2388

Important News
(AUD)Retail Sales m/m
(AUD)ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
(EUR)Sentix Investor Confidence
(EUR)German Factory Orders m/m

EUR/AUD Elliott Wave Analysis
EUR/AUD pair finish 5 waves down movement in iii wave at 1.2173, And we start 3 corrective waves in iv wave, Wave A finished correction at 1.2228 level and we expect to see soon the end of wave B and start of final C wave in iv wave.Concerning our wave rules and assuming that wave C will be equal to wave A we can project our potential targets with Fibonacci extensions(1.2173-1.228-1.2190) to 1.2242 level. We can use end of wave iii for our stop loss.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why LONG position at levels 1.2200 with Stop Loss at 1.2173 and Take Profit at 1.2242 are recommended
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 6, 2011

From 119.53 GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored magenta in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart). Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B and C (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 120.16.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-120.92-120.16, 120.16-121.16-120.75.

Resistances:

- 121.37 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 121.55 = objective point (OP)
- 121.75 = OP
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.37-41-47 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP) and COP

However, if the downmove continues the immediate supports will be Fibnoacci retracements of 119.53-121.16.

Supports:

- 120.54 = .382 retracement
- 120.35 = .50 ret
- 120.15 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 6, 2011

From 1.0525 AUD/USD is moving within wave 5 of medium term uptrend (this wave is colored royal blue in the chart). Inside this wave there are A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 1.0671 (colored magenta in the chart). The latter subwave also has its minor waves - they are A and B that is developing from 1.0793 (colored orange red in the chart).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0756-1.0671.

Resistances:

- 1.0807 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0814 = COP
- 1.0838 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0902 = objective point (OP)

However if the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0525-1.0793.

Supports:

- 1.0691 = .382 retracement
- 1.0659 = .50 ret
- 1.0627 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (30-45 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
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EUR/AUD Elliott wave count for February 7, 2012


Market Overview
EUR/AUD pair continued to trade inside bearish channel yesterday in slight bullish mood to 50EMA Support around 1.2250 level where this major pair finished first trading day.Today in Asia we could observe downward movement of the EUR/AUD pair to the 1.2140 level.European session did not manage to hold this level and we can observe slight upward movement.We expect this pair to test 50 EMA resistance level before we can see EURO-AUSSIE above 1.2250.


Support and Resistance levels
(S3)1.2156 (S2)1.2181 (S1)1.2197 (PP)1.2221 (R1)1.2246 (R2)1.2262 (R3)1.2286

Important News
(EUR)French Trade Balance
(EUR)German Industrial Production m/m
(AUD)Cash Rate
(AUD)RBA Rate Statement


EUR/AUD Elliott Wave Analysis
Euro-Aussie pair finished iv wave at 1.2255 level, wave v at 1.2140 level and we are currently in a corrective wave, we can expect wave a to finish with 5 subways above end of wave iv,this level we can use for our potential take profit level and for stop loss we can use end of v wave.
alternation: wave v is not over, if price starts to fall under 1.2140 level we can go short for end of v wave to take profit level at 1.2050 .For stop loss we can use big resistance at 1.2180


Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why LONG position at levels 1.2190 with Stop Loss at 1.2140 and Take Profit at 1.2255 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 7, 2011

GBP/JPY is now developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart). Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 120.16.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-121.16-120.42.

Resistances:

- 121.43 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.05 = objective point (OP)
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.47 = COP

However, if the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 119.53 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (10-20 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 7, 2011

From 1.0525 AUD/USD is trading within wave 5 of medium term uptrend (this wave is colored royal blue in the chart). This wave consists of A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 1.0671 (colored magenta in the chart). This subwave also has its smaller waves - A, B and C (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0682.

The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0756-1.0671, 1.0671-1.0793-1.0682, 1.0682-1.0745-1.0701.

Resistances:

- 1.0808-04-07 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP), objective point (OP), and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0814 = COP
- 1.0838 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0866 = SXOP
- 1.0879 = XOP
- 1.0902 = objective point (OP)

If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0682 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (40-50 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (70-85 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 8, 2011

From 1.0525 AUD/USD is developing wave 5 of medium term uptrend (this wave is colored royal blue in the chart). This wave consists of A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 1.0671 (colored magenta in the chart). This subwave also has its smaller waves - A, B and C (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0682. Even this wave has its own subwaves - they are A, B, and potential C from 1.0762 (colored orange red in the chart).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0756-1.0671, 1.0671-1.0793-1.0682, 1.0682-1.0821-1.0762, 1.0762-1.0816-1.0782.

Resistances:

- 1.0836-38 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0848 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0869 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0879 = XOP
- 1.0901-02 = confluence area of two OP's

If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0682 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (55-70 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 8, 2011

GBP/JPY is now developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart). The impulse started from 119.53. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 120.16. This wave has its waves of a smaller degree - A, B, and C that is still developing from 121.85 (colored orange red in the chart).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-121.16-120.42, 120.42-122.18-121.85.

Resistances:

- 122.94 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.06 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.42 = .618 retracement
- 123.61 = objective point (OP)

However, if the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 120.42 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (30-40 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-60 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com

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Fundamental Analysis, February, 10 / 2012


 

Everything happened in the last 24 hours in Europe, although its purpose if it is not announced, the less predictable: the rescue of Greece was delayed further by the European Union.

Such is the lack of political will, lack of leadership and the inability of all stakeholders, that is noticeable from a distance and in advance that things go wrong.

If everything was agreed on Monday, why everything was postponed two days? If sending money as part of bailout plan depended on the adoption by Greece of the measures of "austerity" and other euphemisms, and this actually happened, what is the problem now?

The answer is simple: Greece makes no warranty of any kind, which to date has not yet taken the debt at a very low cost, and the rest of Europe knows, and mistrust of a debtor who has always failed their commitments.

In addition, the Union appears to act for public order problems, not solve, to take the moral high ground and almost extortion, raising the conditions imposed whenever the above are met .

The answer is simple: Greece makes no warranties of any kind-which until now did not yet taken the debt to a very low cost, and the rest of Europe knows it, and distrust of a debtor who has always failed their commitments.

Moreover, the Union appears to act for the public and not to solve problems, to take the moral high ground and almost extortion, raising the conditions imposed whenever the above are met.

To keep this state of affairs, it is likely that Europe will eventually send 14,400 million euros Greece needs it or do pay next month to avoid falling into default, and this game will continue indefinitely until the Greeks give up. That's the next step in sight.

Markets accounted for a further disappointment on this issue, and Friday's European session presents sharp drops in all major markets, while the euro fell as far away from 1.3320, the highest on Thursday and in recent weeks.

Yield also, albeit much weaker, pound sterling, whose medium-term uptrend has been breached, but without further confirmation to the breakdown of it, and the Australian dollar and Canadian.

The feeling is that it will generate a further fall in all leading currencies against the dollar, and that this will take hold, to varying degrees, but with special emphasis to the euro and the currencies linked to gold and oil.

The day's news agenda includes trade balance figures in Canada and the United States, both at 8:30 Eastern, and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan / Reuters

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 13, 2011

AUD/USD is developing impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0525, that is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now this wave has subwaves A and B, with subwave B still developing from 1.0844 (colored magenta in the chart). Within the latter there are A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 1.0639.

The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844.

Supports:

- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
- 1.0412 = .618 ret

If the price keeps moving up, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0639.

Resistances:

- 1.0836 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0958 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (45-60 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 13, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.34. Subwave C was confirmed when the price broke above 122.79 (top of subwave A).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-122.79-121.34, 121.34-123.11-121.98.

Resistances:

- 123.07 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.35-42 = confluence area of COP and .618 retracement
- 123.75 = objective point (OP)
- 124.29 = OP

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.53-123.11.

Supports:

- 121.74 = .382 retracement
- 121.32 = .50 ret
- 120.90 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 14, 2011

AUD/USD is moving wihtin impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0525, this wave is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now the former wave has subwaves A, and B, with subwave B still developing from 1.0777 (colored magenta in the chart). Within the latter there are A, B, and C subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0777.

The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0639-1.0777.

Supports:

- 1.0650 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0577-72 = confluence area of .382 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
- 1.0445 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0412 = .618 ret

If the price keeps moving up, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0639.

Resistances:

- 1.0836 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0958 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-35 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 14, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.34. Subwave C was confirmed when the price broke above 122.79 (top of subwave A). However it will be over if the price breaks below 121.34.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-122.79-121.34, 121.34-123.11-121.62.

Resistances:

- 122.71 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.35-39-42 = confluence area of COP, objective point (OP), and .618 retracement
- 123.75 = OP
- 124.29 = OP

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.53-123.11, and expansions off 123.11-121.98-122.86.

Supports:

- 121.32 = .50 ret
- 121.03 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 120.90 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (30-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (60-75 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 15, 2011

AUD/USD is still developing impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0525, this wave is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now the former wave has subwaves A, B, and C, with potential subwave C still developing from 1.0628 (colored magenta in the chart).

The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0844-1.0628, and expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0629.

Resistances:

- 1.0761 = .618 retracement
- 1.0825 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0947 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

If the price reverses to the downside the targets below will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844.

Supports:

- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
- 1.0412 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (40-45 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (70-85 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 15, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.00-122.45.

Resistances:

- 123.42 = .618 retracement
- 123.83 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and objective point (OP)
- 124.29 = OP
- 124.68 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 121.62 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com